It's gotta be "Will it rain tonight?"
Unless I'm God or if I have supernatural powers to dictate the various degrees of what insurers term as 'Acts of God', I would have no idea how to tell if perfectly good weather might turn into an evening of pelting rain.
Look, even TV weathermen can't tell if it would rain on any particular night. Alright, perhaps they would have access to satellite imagery and state-of-the-art weather radars and other weather forecasting paraphenalia, but still, we all know that such predictions (and not 'certainties') only closes in on the Law of Probabilities.
If someone on the street asked me - another person on the street - if it'll rain tonight, I'll just say 'yes'. Then I'll just leave it to the person's discretion to put me to task if it doesn't rain, or thank me for his/her purchase of an umbrella or something.
I just find the question dumb. It's not as if someone's asking: 'Am I fat?', or 'Am I beautiful?' Those are subjective questions that require objectivity and tact. Otherwise, just answer 'Yes, it will rain tonight' to those questions regarding outward image. Coz without tact and objectivity, a storm will surely brew.
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